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Ford (F) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
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Ford (F - Free Report) is slated to release its fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $36.39 billion and 12 cents per share, respectively.
The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 76.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days. Its top-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 12.9%.
Over the trailing four quarters, the U.S. auto biggie surpassed earnings estimates twice and missed twice, the average surprise being 20.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Ford reported adjusted earnings of 39 cents per share for third-quarter 2023, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents but increased from 30 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated third-quarter revenues came in at $43.8 billion, rising 11.2% year over year.
Ford reported an adjusted free cash flow of $1.23 billion during the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $26.43 billion as of Sep 30, 2023. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.33 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2023.
Factors at Play
In the fourth quarter, Ford’s U.S. sales increased 0.8% year over year to 487,840 units. Sales of the Ford brand rose 0.4%, while that of Lincoln increased 8.8% on the back of solid sales of Aviator and Nautilus.
Sales of hybrid vehicles, ICE and EVs in the United States came in at 37,229, 424,674 and 25,937 units, up 55.5%, down 3.4% and up 27.5%, respectively, on a yearly basis. Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning were the highest contributors to record EV sales in the fourth quarter of 2023. The year-over-year sales of Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning increased 4.6% and 73.6%, respectively.
Sales of Bronco (58.9%) and Maverick (22.4%) rose significantly in the fourth quarter. The year-over-year sales of Ford SUVs and cars increased 7.4% and 20.9%, respectively, while truck sales fell 5%. Ford 2024 Mustang, launched in August 2023, sold 13,290 units in the fourth quarter, up 21% compared with the previous quarter. An increase in year-over-year SUV and car sales is likely to boost the fourth quarter’s result.
Meanwhile, the combination of Ford Pro's strong order books and the successful launch of the all-new Super Duty set the stage for promising results for the Ford Pro segment.
The United Auto Workers strike against Ford, which began on Sep 15, 2023 and lasted six weeks, is likely to have led to lost production in the fourth quarter. Lower production may have hurt sales in the to-be-reported quarter. Our sales estimate for Ford Blue, Ford Model e and Ford Pro segments is pegged at $21.54 billion, $1.35 billion and $12.86 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 18.1%, 13.4% and 7.5%, respectively.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ford for the to-be-reported quarter, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Ford has an Earnings ESP of +4.93%. The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 6 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: F currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other players from the auto space that, per our model, also have the right elements to post an earnings beat this time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALSN’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.42 per share and $753.73 million, respectively. Allison surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.23%.
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA - Free Report) will release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 8. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BWA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 92 cents per share and $3.59 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 10.93%.
Image: Bigstock
Ford (F) Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
Ford (F - Free Report) is slated to release its fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $36.39 billion and 12 cents per share, respectively.
The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 76.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days. Its top-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 12.9%.
Over the trailing four quarters, the U.S. auto biggie surpassed earnings estimates twice and missed twice, the average surprise being 20.3%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Q3 Highlights
Ford reported adjusted earnings of 39 cents per share for third-quarter 2023, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents but increased from 30 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated third-quarter revenues came in at $43.8 billion, rising 11.2% year over year.
Ford reported an adjusted free cash flow of $1.23 billion during the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $26.43 billion as of Sep 30, 2023. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.33 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2023.
Factors at Play
In the fourth quarter, Ford’s U.S. sales increased 0.8% year over year to 487,840 units. Sales of the Ford brand rose 0.4%, while that of Lincoln increased 8.8% on the back of solid sales of Aviator and Nautilus.
Sales of hybrid vehicles, ICE and EVs in the United States came in at 37,229, 424,674 and 25,937 units, up 55.5%, down 3.4% and up 27.5%, respectively, on a yearly basis. Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning were the highest contributors to record EV sales in the fourth quarter of 2023. The year-over-year sales of Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning increased 4.6% and 73.6%, respectively.
Sales of Bronco (58.9%) and Maverick (22.4%) rose significantly in the fourth quarter. The year-over-year sales of Ford SUVs and cars increased 7.4% and 20.9%, respectively, while truck sales fell 5%. Ford 2024 Mustang, launched in August 2023, sold 13,290 units in the fourth quarter, up 21% compared with the previous quarter. An increase in year-over-year SUV and car sales is likely to boost the fourth quarter’s result.
Meanwhile, the combination of Ford Pro's strong order books and the successful launch of the all-new Super Duty set the stage for promising results for the Ford Pro segment.
The United Auto Workers strike against Ford, which began on Sep 15, 2023 and lasted six weeks, is likely to have led to lost production in the fourth quarter. Lower production may have hurt sales in the to-be-reported quarter. Our sales estimate for Ford Blue, Ford Model e and Ford Pro segments is pegged at $21.54 billion, $1.35 billion and $12.86 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 18.1%, 13.4% and 7.5%, respectively.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ford for the to-be-reported quarter, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Ford has an Earnings ESP of +4.93%. The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 6 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: F currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other players from the auto space that, per our model, also have the right elements to post an earnings beat this time.
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN - Free Report) will release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 13. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.63% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALSN’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.42 per share and $753.73 million, respectively. Allison surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.23%.
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA - Free Report) will release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 8. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BWA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 92 cents per share and $3.59 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 10.93%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.